One of the words | When will the fog of Zheng cotton be dispersed?

At the futures conference held in Hangzhou last week, guests had a majority of bearish views, and of course they also believed that they maintained range-bound shocks. However, judging from the current performance of the disk, the fog that covers the long-short trend of Zheng Cotton still does not disperse, and the future trend remains a mystery.

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In 2017, the third year of domestic cotton destocking, the reserve cotton stock also fell from more than 10 million tons to the current more than 7 million tons. Destocking can be described as rare in recent years, especially at the same time as the cotton planting area in the country declines. As a result, cotton prices have risen. This year's reserve cotton turn-out process has already been carried out in half, and the stock of reserve cotton will be further reduced in the future. According to relevant data, although the domestic cotton planting area increased slightly in 2017, the trend of shifting the cotton price center of gravity has not changed.

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From the perspective of Zhengkang K chart, starting from April 2016, the focus of the main contract price on the disk surface has been oscillating upwards. The main reason is that supply and demand have changed. Today, the price of cotton has fallen into an anxious cycle mode. At this time, both long and short sides still have more sufficient arguments. For the bears, there has been no change in supply and demand for cotton, and the market supply is still relatively sufficient. From the point of view of industrial and commercial stocks and reserve cotton output, it is fully able to guarantee downstream consumer demand. For the bulls, the transaction situation of reserve cotton has been changed from the volume and price in March to the steady growth in April, which has played a positive role in Zheng cotton.

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In addition, among the reserve cotton that came out, Xinjiang cotton has been favored with a transaction rate of almost 100%; while real estate cotton sales have been sluggish, about half have been taken out. As the turn-around time continues, Xinjiang's cotton quotas have gradually decreased, and the proportion of the initial 50% or more has gradually dropped from below 40%. The structural contradictions are prominent, and high-quality cotton may become a scarce resource and will be scrambled by the market. This triggered a wave of upswings.

Up till now, Zheng cotton's ups and downs are still unclear, as to when the funds will be allocated to see the fog. This depends on when changes occur in the volume, turn-out structure, trading volume, transaction price, etc. The fog will also be covered for a period of time and will not easily dissipate.

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