Key words of real estate: Property market entered the adjustment deadline The purchase policy is divided into three major directions

?? With the 35 cities of commercial housing stocks hit a record high, nearly half of the purchase of cities have adjusted the property market policy, under the pressure of destocking, the abdication of purchase restrictions policy has become a trend, experts predict that the future of the property market purchase policy will be three Differentiation in the general direction.

On July 23, according to media reports, the Haikou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau confirmed to the outside that the Haikou municipal government had issued a document suspending the implementation of the commodity house purchase restriction policy, and no longer required buyers to provide proof of the number of housing units. This is the latest move made by the local government to regulate and control the real estate market after Haikou introduced the “New Purchase Account” policy in June this year.

Since then, over 30 cities have adopted a “do nothing” approach to adjust the purchase restriction policy. Including the cancellation of execution-level cancellations, partial cancellations, explicit cancellations, or hearsay cancellations.

Starting in 2010, 46 cities across the country have implemented the property purchase restriction policy, covering the four major municipalities, the five largest single-listed municipalities, most provincial capital cities, and the second and third tier cities developed in coastal areas such as Suzhou, Wuxi, Foshan and Jinhua. . In the first half of this year, many second-tier and third-tier cities were affected by high inventory pressure, and they have cancelled purchase restrictions in order to warm up the property market. Real estate has entered an adjustment period, and the property market has spread loosely.

According to statistics, Haikou, Hohhot, Nanning, and Jinan have issued clear policy documents and adjusted purchase restrictions. Cities such as Nanchang, Xiamen, Wenzhou, Kunming, Chengdu, Tianjin Binhai New Area, and Changchun have in fact loosened their policies, but they have not issued a clear statement. However, Kitahiro-Shang Guangshen still strictly abides by the restriction camp.

Since the release of a full-scale purchase of over 90 square meters of housing in Suzhou and the cancellation of the purchase restriction of more than 140 square meters in the main urban area of ​​Xiaoshan in Hangzhou, the cancellation of the scope of purchase restrictions has been subject to widespread controversy. Some experts have stated that the purchase restriction is correct. The entire real estate has a significant impact, sales decline, and developers are not buying land actively. However, at present, only the "big house" is released for purchase. This is hardly beneficial to the ordinary Gangster family.

Second, the report

According to statistical data, as of July 22, a total of 53 housing companies released the 2014 interim results forecast. The performance was improved to 25, of which 3 companies increased slightly, 4 companies continued to make profits, and 12 companies increased Six homes turned losses; the performance fell to 28, of which one had a slight decrease, four had the first loss, 10 had continued to lose money, and 13 had reduced. Good performance of the housing enterprises accounted for 47.16% of this, and the decline in performance of housing enterprises accounted for 52.84%. This means that nearly 60% of housing enterprises are unprepared for their performance in the first half of this year. Another group of data monitored by Centaline Real Estate more intuitively reflects the results of the midterms of the housing enterprises. Judging from the first half of the sales of 30 benchmark housing enterprises, there are housing companies with higher sales targets such as Vanke and Yuexiu, as well as companies with relatively unsightly sales performance such as Hengsheng Real Estate. From the year-on-year data, 14 out of the 30 housing enterprises saw year-on-year sales decline. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that this is the first time in several years that large-scale housing sales have fallen year-on-year.

???? Third, to inventory

According to monitoring data, as of the end of June, the total inventory of newly-built commodity residential buildings in 35 domestic cities, including Kitahiro Guangzhou-Shenzhen, increased by 2.8% from the previous period, an increase of 22.9% year-on-year, and inventory reached a record high. At the same time, the ratio of commercial housing to commercial housing in 35 cities was 18.1, which also meant that the market needed 18.1 months to digest the inventory.

According to the statement made by Minister of Housing and Urban Development Chen Zhenggao of the new performance in the first national conference on housing and urban-rural development after his appointment, he put forward three practical opinions on the improvement of the real estate policy: do everything possible to digest the inventory; further strengthen the real estate structure Adjustment; Improve the surrounding facilities of real estate projects. In particular, the expression “doing everything possible to digest inventory” will undoubtedly become an important basis for subsequent adjustments of the property market regulation policies by local governments. The abdication of the restriction policies of high-stocking cities will also become a general trend.

Experts say that the process of destocking has started and will be accelerated in the next 3-5 years. This change will also force real estate start-ups and investment activities to remain at very low levels for a long time. This will have a serious impact on local fiscal revenues, the needs of companies on related industrial chains, and investment activities.

????? And in the Central Plains Group Chairman Dawn Yan, the move to loosen restrictions in some cities can not be called "rescue", but only to return to the market to reduce control.

Dawn Li said that the effect of classification control is better than past one-size-fits-all adjustments. The increase in policy freedom has allowed some cities with excessive supply to adjust the market by taking measures to relax control. He believes that the key to affecting the direction of the future property market depends on the government's financial regulation. “The government will no longer make big efforts to rescue the market. In the future, it may gradually loosen some money into the market. However, the state of tight capital will not be just a few months, so the property market Adjustment will continue for a long time.

Four, classification and control

Zhang Dawei, Chief Market Analyst of Centaline Property, said in an interview with the media that in the 46 cities that have implemented purchase restrictions, the purchase restriction policy will be significantly divided into three major sectors.

First of all, it is the first-tier cities in the North, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. Because of the need to control the population and the economic dependence on real estate is not high, it is expected that the purchase restriction policy will be implemented for a long time.

Followed by the economic second-tier cities and third-tier cities, it is expected that at least 30 cities may follow the footsteps of Hohhot and Jinan, take the form of an official document, the full cancellation of purchase restrictions in order to achieve market expectations. The housing prices in these cities are not high, and the inventory is very large. Cancelling the purchase restriction has little impact on the local property market.

The third part of the group is the second-tier cities, the economy is relatively good, the inventory is relatively small, the prices of high cities, such as Xiamen, Nanjing, Suzhou, Zhengzhou and other 5 to 10 second-tier cities, it is possible to continue to implement the purchase limit , but may be partially relaxed at the executive level.

In other words, not all second-tier cities can completely cancel the purchase restriction. Zhang Dawei believes that the classified control and two-way control proposed by the central government earlier this year cannot be simply divided by the first and second line. Similar to several second-tier cities such as Xiamen and Nanjing, the net inflow of population is still relatively large, and the upward pressure on housing prices is not small. Only when the transaction volume shrinks, the local government wants to partially loosen the purchase restriction policy through verbal communication. In this way, the desired effect can be achieved, but the risk of canceling the purchase restriction directly is too great and the possibility is very small.

At the same time, Qin Hong, director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News: “In the past, the supply and demand of the domestic property market was tight, but in the past two years, the supply of domestic property markets has grown rapidly. At the speed of sales, local regions have indeed oversupplyed. In this context, the state has proposed a policy of classification and control. Therefore, whether or not to restrict or cancel purchases should also be adapted to local conditions.” (Bai Pei Pei This author is Xinhua Real Estate Reporter)

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